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Time: 2017-02-17

PE, while the fundamentals of supply and demand to maintain balance, domestic

petrochemical

Inventory growth is slow, but as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories will be closed one after another, demand will continue to decline, and the balance of supply and demand may be broken again. Moreover, because the imported materials booked by the factory in the early stage are arriving in succession, and most importers have been pre-selling the goods in February and march in advance, many factories have booked some goods in advance, which is bound to overdraw the market demand before and after the Spring Festival. Therefore, in the absence of favorable factors, it is expected that the domestic LLDPE market price will drop to 8500-8700 yuan/ton in February.

PP, the current market price ushered in a five-year history of **** level, some traders and factories have a certain intention to fill the warehouse, the market before the Spring Festival, although there will not be a reversal of the market, but there is not much room for decline. After the Spring Festival, the market coincides with the middle and late February, and the factory will not enter the market in a concentrated way. It is expected that the market will narrow by then. Polypropylene prices are expected to swing down before the Spring Festival, the amplitude will not exceed 200 yuan/ton. Take east China market as an example, the mainstream wire drawing quotation is 7700-8000 yuan/ton.

In terms of PVC, in the later stage, raw material calcium carbide will continue to fall, supply and demand pressure is difficult to see a significant improvement, the macro level is still lack of strong support, so the market participants will still be poor mentality, PVC prices in February is still likely to fall slightly. But the price gradually fell back to the psychological level of participants, early February or there will be some appropriate stocking phenomenon, the price decline or will narrow, after mid-february PVC trade will almost stop, common type 5 calcium carbide is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4800-5000 yuan/ton

Hard glue respect, international crude oil basically is in 40-50 dollar concussion, still did not get rid of low, and upstream styrene is in 7000 yuan of the neighborhood hover, cost support force is insufficient, the confidence inside course of study is weaker. As the end of the year approaches, the terminal factory begins the Spring Festival holiday gradually, and the actual demand begins to decrease. Many downstream factories are already stocking up, and there is less incentive to restock (unless stimulated by the upstream boom), so the expected drop in February is clear. Before the positive signal is not clear, the industry is more cautious operation. Zhuo chuang believes that the hard rubber market in February will be low consolidation, also continue to slightly lower.