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Time: 2017-02-17

Since October

plastic

Trend first Yang then depressed, the bottom of the pattern of basic declaration of this year "gold nine silver ten" market ended in a dismal situation. On the current trend in crude oil and plastic fundamentals of various factors analysis, the short - term plastic or will maintain a volatile trend.

First, the international crude oil lingers, on impulse energy shortage. During the National Day holiday, the trend of the external plate is optimistic, international crude oil continuously pull up, oil prices are also testing the previous wave of low rebound high. However, the optimistic situation is not sustainable, after the holiday crude oil prices gradually fell back, and then fell to the previous 45 to 48 dollars per barrel in the volatile range. Two weeks after the double EIA crude oil inventories continued to surge, the surge in inventories naturally depressed prices. The pattern of oversupply completely impedes the upward breakthrough of crude oil. On the one hand, OPEC countries are still maintaining high production. On the other hand, both the IEA and EIA have lowered their forecasts for crude oil demand in 2016 due to the poor economic outlook. All of these factors suggest that crude oil will not recover to a firmer price for some time, even in 2016.

Secondly, plastic supply growth is relatively stable, capacity expansion into potential pressure. This year, the supply of plastic continues to maintain a stable growth pattern, except for a relatively prominent growth in the first half of the year, since the third quarter of plastic supply growth has been declining month by month. It can be said that due to the downturn of the manufacturing industry, petrochemical is no longer blindly pursue the expansion of production. LLDPE supply rose by 480,000 tons in the year to August from a year earlier, up 11.5 percent from a year earlier. But even a small increase in supply may have added to the pressure because of weak demand for plastics at the end of the year. In addition, shenhua shenmu and China coal mengda, two 600,000-ton plant lines planned for this year, are scheduled to go online in October of the fourth quarter, which has brought considerable pressure to the already depressed plastic market.

Third, the terminal demand is cold and cheerless, obviously less than in previous years. Although the pressure on the plastic supply side is not particularly prominent, it is difficult to meet the demand in the peak season due to the weak terminal demand. The market is looking forward to the "gold nine silver ten" market is also because the overall market is not good this year, looking forward to the peak season just need to lift. However, the production situation of some enterprises shows that this year's demand is obviously less than in previous years. From the downstream enterprises operating rate comparison, the same period last year in the northern agricultural film operating rate of 65-75%, and this year's average operating rate of only 50-70%; On the other hand, from the production of plastic film, although this year after the third quarter of the film production compared with the same period last year has a significant increase, but its growth rate has been significantly lower than last year 20% level.

In general, from the perspective of the industrial chain, although the plastic industry is not too bad, because of the drag of the low price of upstream crude oil and the unprosperous peak season,

Price of plastic

It's kind of tied down. On the one hand, the current low price level, small supply pressure and a certain degree of downstream rigid support, so that the price of plastic is not much space to fall. On the other hand, without the trend of oil prices and the overall depressed situation of the industry itself, the possibility of a sharp rise in plastic prices is not high. Enter November, plastic prices are expected to maintain a wide range of shocks pattern. In the specific operation of investors can consider in 8200-8700 yuan/ton line of high throw low suction ideas.