Time: 2017-02-17
Plasticizing dynamic
Recently, due to the shock of crude oil price consolidation, there has been no rebound and the downstream enterprises just need to start the poor impact, the price of plastic has dropped significantly, but the overall situation of the industrial chain, we believe that the plastic this downward trend is difficult to continue, the market will turn, the specific reasons are the following two aspects.
The worst of the oil glut is over
The center of gravity of crude oil prices has shifted sharply this year due to slowing global economic growth, oversupply of crude oil and the strong dollar. A comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue was reached in mid-july, marking the gradual lifting of previous sanctions on the Iranian economy. OPEC crude production is set to hit a record high after lifting international sanctions on Iran amid a global oil glut. But the move is widely expected to add to the market's excesses and directly weigh on oil prices.
But the market did not turn out as badly as expected. In late August, the U.S. energy information administration (EIA) revised its methodology in its monthly oil and gas production report, predicting that non-opec crude output would fall by 500,000 BPD in 2016, the biggest *** decline since the collapse of the Soviet union in 1992, when non-opec output plummeted by 1 million BPD. On September 14th the organisation of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for demand for OPEC crude next year and cut its forecast for non-opec supplies. OPEC expects demand for OPEC crude to reach as much as 30 million BPD in 2016, up from 1 million BPD this year. At the same time, OPEC also cut its 2016 supply to non-opec countries to 110, 000 barrels per day, a move that could set the stage for a rebound in afternoon oil prices. On September 18th Baker Hughes, an oil-services firm, reported that the number of RIGS drilling in America fell by eight to 64 in the week, the first three-week decline in three months, after a 10-month decline last week.
On the inventory front, EIA crude inventories fell 2.1 million barrels in the week ended sept.
As can be seen from the figure below, the month-on-month dynamics of crude oil inventories in the United States in 2015 took may as the cut-off point. In the first half of the year, the crude oil inventories in the United States continued to increase and reached a historical peak of 491 million barrels in April. Subsequently, due to the traditional peak consumption season in summer, crude oil inventories showed intermittent month-on-month decline. In addition, U.S. commercial crude inventories are now at 45.7998 million barrels, down 39.914 million barrels or 6.7% from their April peak of 490.912 million barrels. It can be speculated that in the upcoming winter oil consumption season, the international oil supply and demand situation has gradually turned better.
Summary: in any case, we see a very limited amount of room and duration for continued downward pressure on oil prices after the $40 to $50 / BBL *** low, and the market is prone to a sharp rebound at the first sign of trouble. While global oil prices were still under pressure from ample global supply, the worst of the glut is over, as measured by month-on-month U.S. crude inventories. The price of crude oil has already fallen below the low point during the financial crisis in 2008 and the production cost of American shale oil. The relative price and the price of **** are already at a very low position. When the supply and demand fundamentals no longer deteriorate significantly, there is a great possibility that the price of crude oil will stop falling around $40 and even rebound. This also makes the plastic in the peak demand bottoming out more powerful rebound.
Second, profit demand driven petrochemical price attitude does not change
Since this year, domestic chemical futures market by crude oil drag malaise, spot prices have been all the way down. However, on the spot and basis level, the price of plastic is strong, other chemicals can not match, which is one of the important reasons for the recent trend of plastic futures than other chemicals. Investigate its reason, we think to still be petrifaction to prop up valence to be in produce favorable effect.
Sinopec (600028, shares) belongs to monopoly industries, the "three big barrel" sinopec, cnooc, petrochina restricts the domestic chemical industry upstream supply for a long time, but the excessive emphasis on GDP and development of the 21st century, lead to the "three big barrel", unrestrained petrochemical development is obvious to all, the industry faces overcapacity problem increasingly prominent, also is in atmosphere of such plastic enterprises break through this year, it was also because of petrochemical enterprise in contradiction before timely adjusted, firmly control the pricing power and keep the good development momentum, the most direct performance is petrochemical seized the profit space, Cost advantage is profitable.
At the beginning of 2015, the production profit of plastic enterprises was around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Later, the price of crude oil fell close to 1000 yuan/ton, but petrochemical enterprises immediately took measures to support the price, making the price of plastic lower than the upstream crude oil and ethylene, successfully saving their profits. In march, the price of crude oil started to rise steadily, and the spot price of plastic was the first to rise rapidly, with the production profit exceeding the historical high of 2500 yuan/ton. Later, due to the rebound of crude oil and ethylene, it was compressed and maintained at the average level of 1500-1700 yuan/ton.
As can be seen from the above figure, in the relatively low season of July and August, the profit of plastics was considerable, and the average profit in August was over 1,700 yuan/ton. The demand for plastics in this period was actually limited, but in order to gain the bargaining power in the second half of the peak season, the spot price of petrochemical support went up in this period, and the profit also went up. At present, we calculate the petrochemical profit at around 1800 yuan/ton, and this year's peak season started late, the downstream demand is still rising, so we have reason to believe that in the following market at the end of the year, driven by the petrochemical profit will continue to maintain the price support strategy.
In addition, in August, September chemical market in the process of continued malaise, plastic spot price has always remained above 9,000 yuan/ton, the current price difference maintained at 650 yuan/ton or so, **** reached 995 tons. Spot manufacturers can be seen after the market demand is optimistic, so firm price intention.
Summary: the current plastic production profits and film just need will gradually come, petrochemical enterprises have every reason, have the ability to keep considerable profits in the peak season, will also be firm its attitude to price; However, the current large base difference makes the spot market also has the need to repair the base difference, if the spot price is strong, it will inevitably lead to the rise in the futures price. In addition, the current large forward spread is also conducive to the hedging of traders into the market, the base difference is likely to be repaired to the zero axis for a period of time in the future, thus driving up the price of plastic futures.
Summarize and advise
Wide range of crude oil shock, petrochemical in the end of the holiday longer price destocking, the spot market is relatively general, dominated by steel, petrochemical inventory declined slightly. Downstream construction better, crude oil prices steadily finishing will have a good impact on downstream with the sentiment, suggest pay close attention to the downstream clinch a deal, ready for the spot situation depends largely on the downstream enterprises at present stage, is expected to double festival ahead of downstream manufacturers appear more likely to focus on inventory, plastic market under the condition of the crude oil stabilization is likely to be affected by inventory bottoms out. Operationally, conservative investors are advised to wait and see; Activist investors can try more at 8300-8400.
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