Time: 2017-02-17
glue
Net news: recently, the market news OPEC meeting may make a cut, limit the production decision, the market's mentality almost entirely on the OPEC production news, and the trend of oil prices react to the news very quickly. So can this news stop the petrochemical industry from falling and rebounding?
Since June this year, the international oil price has been falling, especially after the "National Day" golden week. Some institutions predict that the price of refined oil per ton is now expected to be cut at around 200 yuan, the petrochemical industry and its downstream products market operators began to spread fear and panic.
Some downstream products in the petrochemical industry, such as olefin and polyethylene, are dominated by bearish sentiment, analysts said.
Analysts said that in the second half of this year, affected by the continuous decline in crude oil prices, domestic petrochemical industry-related products almost fell with the overall, "short-term negative impact will be relatively large, but in the long term, the decline of crude oil prices will gradually show positive." Long-term low oil prices will be good
Relevant analysts said that if the OPEC meeting decided to cut production, as long as the amount is appropriate, the support for the oil price will be strong in the later stage, and the oil price is likely to go up, but the extent of the increase is relatively limited, after all, the weak demand of the entire international market is the root cause of the low oil price.
Analysts say that if oil prices rise too high, it could spur U.S. shale oil production, and OPEC production cuts would lose market share. But crude oil is, after all, the most rudimentary of the petrochemical industry
The raw material
Therefore, the long-term low oil price will gradually reduce the cost of downstream enterprises, and the positive effect of crude oil price decline will gradually appear.
The downstream product market of China's petrochemical industry is bearish. It is known that the cost of industrial raw materials has dropped across the board due to the plummeting international oil price.
"Lower industrial raw material prices for downstream factories is certainly good," industry insiders said, for example, for downstream plastic products enterprises, in the long run, raw materials and other production costs significantly reduced, the profit space will increase, is certainly good; But at present on the market wait and see atmosphere is dense, won't prepare too much inventory, and price conduction also needs a process. Petrol stations saw profits shrink by nearly $1, 000 a tonne
The price of gasoline has dropped by more than 1,000 yuan per ton, while the price of diesel has also dropped by about 900 yuan per ton. At present, the profit of petrol stations has narrowed sharply, with nearly 1,000 yuan less per ton than before. But the market is still very depressed!
Since June this year, the international oil price has suffered a precipice type plunge, and then maintained a downward trend. Although the situation was occasionally reversed, the overall situation was still not improved. Domestic refined oil prices also followed the international oil prices fell for eight consecutive years, this Friday the oil price adjustment window opened, nine even fell will come as expected.
Take a local gas station in shandong as an example, the original retail profit of refined oil is more than 2500 yuan per ton, after eight consecutive declines, the profit per ton is only about 1500-1800 yuan, plus various preferential promotion activities, the profit space has been greatly narrowed; Will soon usher in nine consecutive down, but the market is still very depressed, buy up do not buy down wait-and-see atmosphere is still very serious.
Analysts said that the domestic petrochemical industry's own demand is relatively weak, its own market is difficult to bring a positive boost to its price; And raw material prices have continued to fall, so the mentality of the market will be very pessimistic, which will form a further pressure on the prices of related products.
The research data shows that the market price of linear polyethylene in June is around 12,000 yuan/ton, and by November 26, the market price is around 10,400 yuan/ton, and the price is down about 1,600 yuan/ton, a range of 13.33%.
According to the analysis, although for the downstream factories, the price of raw materials has dropped significantly, which is quite positive, but the price transmission to the downstream has a lag of about one month. At present, the international oil price still shows no signs of stabilizing, and the influence of market mentality will be relatively large, and the bearish mentality is still increasing.
Currently, the cost of polyethylene is usually calculated based on brent crude oil price. If the current cost is calculated based on the price of last month, if the average monthly brent price in October is calculated based on usd 88 per barrel, the current cost of pure raw materials is about RMB 9,100 per ton, plus labor costs and other expenses, the petrochemical industry is still in the red.
As of may, shandong refiners were able to maintain a profit of less than 200 yuan per ton in processing crude oil from shengli oilfield, according to testing data. But after may, crude oil processing profits have been losing money, and at the end of August, refining profits were losing 234 yuan per ton. The most direct impact on refinery profits is the operating rate. The operating rate of local refineries was close to 30% in the third quarter. Due to the loss of refinery profits, some refineries have been delaying the start plan of petrochemical industry, while some smaller refineries have stopped production to avoid losses.
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