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Market supply is rising steadily. From the data of previous years, affected by the market off-season factors, most of the year during the Spring Festival, PVC enterprises started to maintain high-load operation. The range of start-up before 16-19 is between 0.57% and 1.36% after the Spring Festival. From 2018, the start-up after the Spring Festival shows an upward trend, mainly due to fewer overhauls in winter, and the PVC production enterprises also have signs of preparing inventory in March-April, superimposing nearly two-year profits. With the recovery of profit, the production of PVC enterprises has kept steady and increased, and the market demand is relatively stable. Affected by the Chinese Spring Festival and Singapore's public holidays, the Asian market maintained stable prices during the Spring Festival. CFR China was $900/ton, CFR Southeast Asia was $900/ton, and CFR India was $955/ton.

Average Start-up Rate of PVC Enterprises in 2017-2019

The price of raw material calcium carbide has been rising regionally in recent years, mainly affected by the accident of Yulin Coal Mine in Shaanxi Province. In some areas, coal mines have been shut down and rectified, and the price of blue carbon has risen, which leads to the cost of calcium carbide rising. Before the Spring Festival, PVC enterprises began to stock up, and the inventory of calcium carbide enterprises showed a downward trend. At present, the supply and demand of calcium carbide are basically stable, and the supply of PVC enterprises is relatively sufficient. PVC downstream products enterprises are slowly resumed due to the holiday, especially the late start of the real estate industry. Domestic real estate is expected to gradually recover after January 15.

Generally speaking, the current market is in a state of more supply and less demand, the downstream construction is relatively slow, and in the off-season demand, as well as weather, transportation and other factors, the market of PVC after the festival will show a downward trend of shocks, and participants are advised to operate cautiously.