With the warming of the weather and the recovery of all things, spring ploughing and sowing began. But this year's agricultural film market is not optimistic as expected. Demand starts slowly and the market runs at a low level. The low peak season is the general portrayal of the current agricultural film market.
Maintaining low start-up rate
Since this year, the agricultural film market has been light, and the price is generally stable and small. The market did not change fundamentally in March because of the arrival of the peak demand season, which can be seen from the price trend that the market remained stable.
Specifically, the mainstream price of double-film in Shandong is 10200-10400 yuan (ton price, the same below), the mainstream price of plastic film is 9000-9300 yuan; the mainstream price of double-film in East China is 10300-10500 yuan; and the mainstream price of double-film in South China is 10300-10500 yuan.
The overall agricultural film market is unsatisfactory, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start construction is frustrated. In February, for example, the average start-up rate of agricultural film enterprises was about 17%, which was 11% lower than that of the previous year. At present, the overall start-up rate of agricultural film production enterprises is still low.
From a regional point of view, at present, plastic film covering in northern greenhouses has basically been completed, new orders have been reduced, and the start-up rate of large enterprises is still acceptable, generally in the range of 4-80%. Small and medium-sized enterprises have insufficient follow-up to orders, and the start-up rate has declined to maintain a low level. The demand for agricultural film in South China is relatively stable. The main varieties are white film, greenhouse film and matching plastic film. The production of large and medium-sized enterprises is relatively stable. The start-up rate is generally 3-80%, the daily output is 20-80 tons, and the output of small factories is less.
"Overall, this year's market demand for agricultural film started slower than in previous years, the market performance was flat and the peak season was not strong. However, the demand for plastic film may increase substantially in the middle and late March, and there is an expectation that the start-up rate of production enterprises will increase in the later period. Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trade Co., Ltd.
Lack of cost support
One of the important factors that make the agricultural film market difficult to improve is the weak support of raw material polyethylene. At present, the domestic polyethylene market is mainly stable, with more imports, which still has a great impact on the domestic market. In addition, the domestic polyethylene plant start-up rate is relatively high, the overhaul is mostly a few days of minor repairs, and the pre-stop device restart, so although downstream factories have been started, but the demand has not changed significantly, the supply and demand of polyethylene market is still unbalanced, and prices are declining.
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polyethylene
The impact of falling raw material prices, agricultural film enterprises cautiously wait and see, raw material inventory has been in a low state, just need to purchase. At present, the accumulation of agricultural film orders is less, enterprises lack initiative to start construction, raw materials digestion is slow, and procurement is scarce. The stock of raw materials in large and medium-sized enterprises is generally 200-500 tons. The stock of raw materials in small and medium-sized enterprises is 30-200 tons, which maintains production for 3-7 days. The stock of individual enterprises is large.
Zhai Xiuhao, an analyst, said that in recent years, the upstream and downstream of polyethylene industry gradually returned to the market, traders issued orders and shipments, but downstream demand was slow to follow up, Petrochemical stocks were still at a high level, short-term digestion was more difficult, petrochemical and traders shipped more pressure, polyethylene market fundamentally improved more difficult. However, the price of polyethylene has been at a low level for more than a year, with limited space for decline, or low-level finishing will be the main reason for the difficulty in supporting the agricultural film market on the cost side.
Downstream lifting is weak
Jilin Bang Agricultural Management Co., Ltd. manager Zhijinshan analysis, this year agricultural film market started slowly, the important factor is affected by the national policy.
"The new standard stipulates that the film thickness should reach 0.01mm, and many farmers need the film thickness from 0.004 mm to 0.008 mm. There are uncertainties in the promotion of the new standard in the market, and the specifications of plastic film are difficult to determine. At present, distributors operate cautiously and have less reserves. Not only that, according to the national policy, the increase of film thickness invisibly increases the purchase cost of farmers, but also decreases the purchase enthusiasm. Zhijinshan said.
In addition to national policies, uncertainty in the raw material market has also increased downstream wait-and-see sentiment. Since 2017, the price of polyethylene has been mainly reduced, and the high-cost risk of pre-stocking is high, so that downstream distributors and film production enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude. At the same time, there are also end users, and the low-price purchase mentality is strong, which also causes the film market to be weak.
At the same time, the decrease of government subsidies and farmers'enthusiasm for large-scale planting in Northwest China have kept the purchase of plastic film at a low level, which makes it difficult to inject vitality into the plastic film market.
For the latter agricultural film market trend, some insiders pointed out that there is no need to be too pessimistic. Last year, the demand for plastic film started very late, until the middle and late of March, when plastic film orders were concentrated, agricultural film production reached its peak and reached its peak in the year. Among them, the production peak season of most plastic film enterprises in the northern region can basically last until the middle and late April, and most large and medium-sized enterprises can maintain high-level production.
For plastic film, the current demand is in the off-season, and follow-up orders are scarce. Later, the demand for plastic film in the north will gradually warm up with the passage of time.
