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Time: 2013-07-17

Business news on August 02

China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for July, released on August 1, was 49.9 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Xinhua news agency reporter li an

Manufacturing PMI fell slightly in July, but high-tech manufacturing hit a new high for the year. The non-manufacturing PMI hit a new high for the year, while the service sector grew at a faster pace. Industry insiders believe that the current data volatility is small, overall stable, and some positive factors are still accumulating, China's economy is still in the process of bottom stabilization, macro control should pay attention to the combination of near and far, comprehensive policy, continue to consolidate the steady growth of the economy

On August 1, the service sector survey center of the national bureau of statistics and the China federation of logistics and purchasing released the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing PMI was 49.9 per cent in July, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 53.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Experts said in an interview with the economic journal reporter, in July, manufacturing PMI small-scope fluctuation, the overall smooth, non manufacturing continuous located above from line, indicating that China's economy is still in the bottom out of stabilization process, should pay attention to distance, comprehensive ShiCe macroeconomic regulation and control, continue to consolidate the trend of steady economic growth.

Manufacturing growth depends on the weather

The manufacturing PMI was 49.9 per cent in July, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and just below the tipping point. It was the first time the PMI had fallen below the expansion and contraction line since it jumped to 50.2 in March. In general, the recent trend of the manufacturing PMI is less volatile and generally stable.

From the perspective of the 12 sub-indexes, compared with the previous month, the four indexes of production, new orders, new export orders and supplier delivery time decreased slightly, while the purchasing quantity index was unchanged from the previous month, while the other six indexes all increased. Among the six rising indexes, except the expected increase of purchase prices and production activities by more than 1 percentage point, all the other indexes are within 1 percentage point. In terms of sectors, the PMI fell in 12 out of 21 sectors.

"The PMI continued to fall slightly in July, below the line of expansion and contraction, indicating that the economy is still under downward pressure." Zhang liqun, a researcher at the macroeconomic research department of the development research center of the state council.

National bureau of statistics (NBS) services research center said senior statistician Zhao Qinghe analysis, manufacturing PMI fell back in July, on the one hand is influenced by super el nino, heavy rain across most of the provinces and cities in our country, especially in parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river floods, in related areas of production, transportation and so on a larger impact.

According to the data, the manufacturing production index in July was 52.1 percent, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

On the other hand, China's current market demand growth slowed down, the expansion of the power is still insufficient. In the first six months, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, down by 0.6 percentage points from January to may. Among them, the growth rate of private investment dropped from 3.9% in January to may to 2.8% in January to June.

Despite the slight pullback in the PMI, some positive factors are still accumulating. In July, the high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 53.2 percent, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month and a new high for this year. The leading role of high-tech manufacturing in the structural transformation has been further strengthened.

In addition, the index of enterprises' expected production and operation activities was 55.3 percent in July, 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, indicating that enterprises are more confident about future development.

Non-manufacturing sectors registered steady growth

In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, recovering for two consecutive months and reaching the high point of this year, and stable above 53% for five consecutive months, indicating that China's non-manufacturing industry is stable and good, and the growth rate continues to accelerate.

In each individual index, the expected index of inventory and business activity increased month on month, up 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively. The rest of the major indices fell on a month-on-month basis, with new export orders and sales price indices both down 1.1 percentage points ****.

In terms of sectors, driven by the financial sector and tourism consumption, the index of business activity in the service sector rose 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 52.6% in July, the highest since the second quarter, indicating that the total growth of the service sector continues to accelerate and its role in driving economic growth is growing stronger.

Due to the adverse weather, such as high temperature, typhoon and rainstorm, the production activity of construction enterprises slowed down. The business activity index was 61.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, but still maintained a relatively high prosperity range. Among them, the construction industry new orders index is 56.5%, although it is down from last month, but it is still the second highest point this year, indicating that the construction market demand still maintains a strong expansion trend.

"Generally speaking, in July, the business activity index of the service sector continued to rise, the market operation became better, and the key role of the growth of consumer demand continued to emerge, which is conducive to strengthening the foundation for the sustained and stable operation of the economy. "Construction demand slowed due to the rainy season, but is expected to continue to be released as infrastructure investment is gradually implemented and post-disaster reconstruction begins. CAI jin, vice President of the China federation of logistics and purchasing.

A combination of near and far

In July, the index of finished goods inventory, raw material inventory and purchase volume in the manufacturing industry all increased to varying degrees. The purchasing price index increased by a large margin, and the expectation index of production and operation activities increased significantly, indicating that the enterprise confidence and market expectation are becoming stronger.

"Based on the comprehensive analysis, the Chinese economy is still in the process of bottoming out and stabilizing. We should maintain steady demand, confidence and expectations and continue to consolidate the steady growth of the economy." "Said zhang.

Chen zhongtao, an expert from China logistics information center, said that the recent market slack season, high temperature and rainy weather and floods in some southern provinces and cities have a certain impact on the recent data performance, and the downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year is still large. However, in the manufacturing market, supply and demand are growing, prices are rising, expectations are good, purchases and inventories are at normal levels, employment is stable, and the economy is performing well.

"On the whole, the trend of steady and rapid development of non-manufacturing industries has not changed. The service sector has maintained a good momentum of development. Wu wei, an expert from China logistics information center, said that both the new orders index and the sales price index in July ended the continuous uptrend and both fell back to varying degrees. At present, we still need to pay attention to the stability of demand.

"In macro-control, we need to combine the near with the far and adopt a comprehensive approach." Chen zhongtao, an expert with the China logistics information center, said that on the one hand, we need to maintain steady economic growth, moderately expand aggregate demand, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, pay attention to appropriate and flexible regulation, and create a good macro environment for supply-side structural reform. Under the current downward pressure on the economy, we need to give special attention to guiding market expectations, improve the quality and transparency of our policies, stabilize market expectations with stable macroeconomic policies, and boost confidence in development with major reform measures. On the other hand, we need to accelerate transformation and upgrading, stick to the main direction of supply-side structural reform, accelerate the transformation of old drivers into new ones, and promote long-term economic development.