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Time: 2013-07-17

The international monetary fund recently revised downward its forecast for world economic growth this year and next, but revised upward its forecast for China's growth this year amid heightened downside risks to the global economy. "Despite the challenges posed by economic transformation and reform, the medium - and long-term prospects for China's economy are bright." IMF managing director Christine lagarde laid out the reasons for her bullish view on China's economy.

Recently, there have been many positive comments from the international community on China's economy. In particular, some relevant agencies and media believe that China's supply-side structural reform measures are effective, the economy is more resilient and resilient, and growth is more sustainable.

Based on economic fundamentals, there is every reason for the outside world to give China a vote of confidence. In the first half of this year, in the face of multiple difficulties and challenges at home and abroad, the Chinese government kept its macro policy orientation stable and focused on promoting structural reform. The growth rate remained at 6.7%.

Both in terms of the size of China's economy and the world at large, the 6.7% growth rate is commendable. It is a medium-high growth rate and ranks among the best among the world's economies. More importantly, this pace is supported by employment and quality growth with a high "gold content".

For example, China's service industry has maintained rapid growth, ranking as the largest industry in the national economy, and becoming the main driving force for stable growth and the main channel for job creation. Positive progress has been made in expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. The supply-side structural reform is being implemented, and the five major tasks of "three reductions and one subsidy" have achieved initial results...

It goes without saying that despite the impressive performance in the first half of the year, the foundation of China's stable economic development is not yet solid. The economic trend is still divergent, and the pain of adjustment is still lingering.

Quite a few economists think, Chinese economy runs well "second half", want to hold current economic situation correctly above all. In this regard, we need to be both mindful of potential dangers and strategic in our approach. In particular, we need to look beyond short-term, local and superficial phenomena.

From the perspective of the trend, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic development remain sound. The basic features of China's economy, such as good resilience, great potential and ample room for maneuver, the sound supporting foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth, and the forward trend of economic restructuring and optimization remain unchanged. This means that short-term pressures, in the longer term, may be little more than new curved surfaces and spiraling curves.

For example, in the first half of the year, the regional and industrial economic operation differentiation was quite prominent. At present, the new changes in the structure of industry and demand, as well as the new highlights and improvements in local development, all indicate that China's economy is gaining momentum and energy amid the continuous differentiation.

According to the national bureau of statistics spokesman sheng analysis, from the long term, is still in the process of our modernization drive forward, the industrialization, the urbanization is not complete, the consumption structure upgrade at the critical stage, and has a solid material foundation, the huge stock of human capital and broad space for development, and so on a series of fundamental factors, determines the China's economy has continued to maintain high growth potential and conditions.

However, economic growth potential does not automatically translate into real economic growth. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the global economy will continue to suffer from slow growth, and the downward pressure on China's economy will remain high.

Don't be afraid of clouds. Only when we have a correct understanding of the economic fundamentals can we have firm confidence, maintain our focus, rise to the challenge, maintain the continuity and stability of our policies, make them more targeted and effective, ensure steady progress in economic growth, and ensure that we achieve the main targets for economic and social development set for this year.