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Time: 2017-02-17

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Net news: the dollar continued to decline, oil relay rebound for domestic commodities to win a rare respite from the long. Under the multiple benefits of higher cost, lower demand and spring maintenance of some devices, the chemical industry sector has achieved four consecutive positive results recently, with the cumulative increase of the wenhua chemical index reaching 5.37%.

Does the rebound in chemicals indicate a reversal in the chemical industry? Many analysts believe that the current overall macro environment and policy dividend is conducive to the overall recovery of commodities, chemicals as a strong cycle varieties are also expected to benefit. Considering that the influence of oil price on downstream chemical products has been weak, whether the downstream consumption can be carried out as scheduled has become the key to lead the trend of chemical products in the peak season, and it is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term.

Futures linkage chemical collective rebound

Since this week, a booming commodity market, chemical varieties on the disk again led up. On Tuesday (March 24), the zhengchun 1506 contract rose by the daily limit of 2,435 yuan per ton, the plastics 1509 contract jumped by 3.57 percent to 9,565 yuan per ton, the asphalt 1506 contract, the PTA1505 contract all rose by more than 2 percent, and the rubber 1509 contract and the PP1505 contract also rose by more than 1 percent.

Cheng xiaoyong, assistant director of baocheng futures financial research institute, believes there are four reasons for the recent strong performance of chemical products. The second is the overhaul of some production facilities, which is mainly reflected in methanol, plastics and PP and other markets. Third, the advent of seasonal consumption season, which makes part of the downstream procurement recovery; Fourth, the macro environment is relatively good, especially liquidity is relatively abundant, leading to a relatively strong performance of the whole commodity.

In terms of the overall environment, the recent pullback in the us dollar has led to a general rise in non-ferrous metals, precious metals and crude oil, boosting market confidence. From the perspective of the industry, season hype effect for the round of chemical rebound also contributed. "At present, the inventory of downstream enterprises, such as methanol, plastics and PVC, is low, and there is a need for replenishing the inventory in the downstream after the consumption is gradually restored in March." Hualian futures researcher sun xiaoqin said.

Chen gang, a researcher at guantong futures, also believes that the recent rise in plasticizing products is mainly due to price increases by petrochemical companies. "Due to the low inventory of petrochemical companies, the growth rate of social inventory also began to fall, so petrochemical companies have a strong willingness to support prices, so the whole chemical industry sector rose.

For equities chemical sectors fared better, Chen gang, points out that the stock market is chemical sector rose sharply due to the current bull market to boost overall, measures and deepen the reform of the stability of the market expected, plus interest rate cuts down the conduct of monetary policy, such as, market confidence enhanced obviously, the overall stock market into a bull market, superimposed on city to chemical plate positive again, make the chemical sector has risen higher than city to stock market.

The impact of crude oil weakened after consumption dominated

It is widely believed in the industry that the recent collective rise in chemical products is mainly supported by higher oil prices. Since March 18, U.S. crude has surged back above the $50 range from $47.32, with gains of more than 5 percent. But analysts remain divided over oil prices amid high inventories and pressure to increase production.

"Without a significant improvement in the structure of supply and demand, or moves or comments from producers to reduce production, it is too early to see a bottom forming." Chen gang thinks, if do not have accident happening, later period oil price is easy to fall hard rise, but at present the influence of oil price to downstream chemical already weak.

'the fundamentals of the current oversupply remain unchanged,' Mr. Sun said. Oil prices below $50 / BBL will not be around for long, and in the short term the preference is for a long bottoming period.

"The main factors dominating the current trend of chemical products are the domestic market supply and demand structure and petrochemical price policy." Chen gang expresses, below the circumstance with current lesser inventory pressure and petrifaction support price intention apparent, chemical product still goes up easily difficult drop. In terms of the strength of varieties, PE and methanol were the strongest, followed by PP and PTA.

Cheng xiaoyong thinks, industry forestall sex brings about cost drive to be the mainline that chemical product rises repeatedly all the time. Although the crude oil low consolidation limits the overall rebound height, but the stage strong will still exist. At the same time, seasonal peak season and capacity maintenance is also worthy of attention, which is a decisive factor in the stage of the market. For different varieties, LLDPE, PP and methanol have a large space above, but PTA overcapacity and downstream cotton substitution effect on chemical fiber restrict its rebound height, and PCV also belongs to the industry of overcapacity.