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Time: 2017-02-17

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Net news: on March 23 and 24, as ethylene prices continue to go up, in the cost support, plastic futures prices also rose significantly. We expect that after the market in the consumption of light drag, plastic futures will turn down.

Ethylene is the raw material of plastic production, the price difference between plastics and ethylene can be roughly regarded as the gross profit of plastic production enterprises. When the price difference between the two is small or even negative, the profits of plastic manufacturers will be diluted, so this kind of plastic and ethylene spread is too small to maintain for a long time.

We import price of ethylene with northeast Asia x middle price by 1.17 yuan against the dollar (VAT) x 1.05 (tariffs) + 150 yuan/ton (freight) calculate the imported ethylene discount the price of the yuan, get ethylene conversion price compared with plastic spot prices found that since 2007, the gap between * * * * value of 5533 yuan/ton, the minimum value is - 289 yuan/ton, the average is 1677 yuan/ton. As of March 20, the price difference between plastics and ethylene was 986 yuan per ton, and it fell below 1,000 yuan per ton for the first time since October 17, 2014. As the price difference between plastics and ethylene shrinks, so do the profits of plastics producers.

Next, let's look at the recent supply and demand situation of ethylene. The upstream of ethylene is naphtha, and the upstream of naphtha is crude oil. Since ethylene is the primary processed product of crude oil, the price of ethylene is sensitive to the price changes of raw materials. The recent sharp decline in the dollar index, crude oil prices bottomed out, from the cost of ethylene laid out the pattern of easy to rise but difficult to fall.

In addition, the domestic part area ethylene supplies the tension, under the cost and the demand joint action, the ethylene price presents the recent rising trend. The price gap between plastics and ethylene, which had been low, needs to be fixed. The main reasons for the recent rise in the price of plastics have been explained above, and then we will analyze whether the rise will last.

First, from the perspective of cost, despite the recent pullback in the dollar, the strength of the dollar is difficult to shake in the context of loose monetary policies in major economies around the world. Therefore, we believe that the depth of the pullback in the dollar is limited, which determines the limited support of the dollar for crude oil. Moreover, the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil is difficult to reverse in the short term, and this is the slack season of crude oil consumption, so the rebound of crude oil price is limited.

Second, at least 25, 000 tonnes of ethylene were shipped to east Asia in late march and early April, easing the short-term shortfall.

Third, the domestic mulching work has been completed, the end of the consumption season of mulching, the consumption of plastic in the later period is gradually weak.

Its 4, at present plastic spot price is in 9900 yuan/ton, up to March 24 plastic 1505 contract close at 9890 yuan/ton, period now price difference closes basically, because plastic 1505 contract is apart from deliverable only more than a month, plastic future price rises hardship.

To sum up, the low price difference between plastics and ethylene, together with the rise in the price of crude oil and ethylene, led to the passive follow up of plastics. In the afternoon, the price of crude oil and ethylene is limited, the supporting role of agricultural film consumption is weakened, the plastic futures will run down, investors can try to short the 1505 contract, or short the 1505 contract more than the 1509 contract operation.